Map
Future
scenarios
  Scenario 1
    Positive factor
      Describe what happens
        Then what?
        Then what?
      Describe what happens
        Then what?
        Then what?
    Neutral (status quo)
      Describe what happens
        Then what?
        Then what?
      Describe what happens
        Then what?
        Then what?
    Negative factor
      Describe what happens
        Then what?
        Then what?
      Describe what happens
        Then what?
        Then what?
  Scenario 2
    Positive factor
      Describe what happens
        Then what?
        Then what?
    Neutral (status quo)
    Negative factor
  Scenario 3
    Positive factor
      Describe what happens
        Then what?
        Then what?
    Neutral (status quo)
    Negative factor
  INSTRUCTIONS
Future scenarios is a brainstorming technique that enables you to imagine several potential futures and to compare them side-by-side. In addition, within each scenario, you can imagine a range of future environments, from the status quo to those in which positive and negative factors have affected the future.
A mind map is an excellent tool to explore the characteristics of these “what if” worlds in a visual format that encourages lateral thinking and imaginative play.
To use this tool, first start out by defining the future you plan to explore in the central topic. It could be focused on future developments in society, politics, technology or government regulation, for example. You can also use it to focus on the future of your industry or profession.
Next, name the 3 scenarios you plan to explore. Be as specific and also as concise as you can. Then imagine specific positive and negative factors that could affect that imaginary future.
Positive factors could include a major technological breakthrough, a strong economy or minimal government regulations.
Negative factors could include another maor global health crisis, a deteriorating environment, war or economic recession.
Then use subtopics to describe what each of those scenarios could look like.
When you're done building out the details of each scenario and the positive/neutral/negative conditions, look for elements that are common across all three scenarios - they're the things that are likely to happen no matter which path the future actually follows.
Chuck Frey
Visual Velocity
(formerly the Mind Mapping Software Blog)
mindmappingsoftwareblog.com
chuck@chuckfrey.com