Map
Event
  Demographic
    Second-order effect
    Second-order effect
  Economic
    Second-order effect
    Second-order effect
    Second-order effect
  Societal
    Second-order effect
    Second-order effect
  Business/Competition
    Second-order effect
    Second-order effect
    Second-order effect
  Key Customers
    Second-order effect
    Second-order effect
  Distribution
    Second-order effect
  INSTRUCTIONS
Most people are first-order thinkers. We see what’s happening around us and jump to obvious conclusions, often reinforced by confirmation bias (based on what we already think we know). First-order thinkers tend to think alike.
Second-order thinkers ask themselves the question, “And then what?” This shift in mindset enables them to envision trends and implications that others can’t even see. That makes them incredibly valuable in today’s uncertain world.
A mind map can help you visualize these implications. It leverages your brain’s associative capabilities, making it easy to brainstorm and capture potential chains of effects.
Simply place the event in the center of the map and then start brainstorming the impacts it is likely to cause. To help focus your thinking, I recommend that you create first-level topics that represent different spheres of influence that are important to you, such as demographics, economics, societal values, competitive situations, customer needs and so forth. Use them as triggers to get you thinking.
To further catalyze your thinking, ask yourself questions like:
What are the potential implications of this event, decision or trend?
How could it impact people, businesses, the environment or other aspects of the world around me?
How can I create a scenario that imagines how a chain of effects could potentially play out?
What if the future is significantly better in some fundamental way than the present, caused in part by this event or decision?
What if this event causes the future to be fundamentally worse, more uncertain or unpredictable in some way?
By engaging in this type of thinking, you’re constructing scenarios that imagine how the future may play out, so you can make better decisions in the present and see emerging opportunities and threats better.
Have fun exploring the second-order effects in your world!
Chuck Frey
Visual Velocity
(formerly the Mind Mapping Software Blog)
mindmappingsoftwareblog.com
chuck@chuckfrey.com